At the time of this writing in early December, most of the dust has settled on the 2024 elections. The NACS Government Relations team is now sorting through the results to gauge what the outcome may mean for our industry’s priority issues in the coming months. There are several things we know, and a few that are still up in the air.

What We Know

Republicans have secured a trifecta in Washington. They control the majorities in both chambers of Congress and have the White House, meaning the ball is entirely in their court for 2025 and 2026.

What Is Still Up in the Air

In the last weeks of 2024, it is unclear when the Republican majority will be at full strength given that there will be special elections to fill the seats of those Members of Congress who are leaving to join the Trump administration. House Republicans have won 220 seats to the Democrats’ 215. However, due to former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-FL) resignation, they will start the 119th Congress down one seat already, giving them a 219-215 split.

President Trump has nominated three current House Republicans to his administration, which will necessitate special elections for those seats and will leave the House majority short of those votes for some time. As of this writing, two special elections have already been scheduled: one to replace former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), who was nominated for U.S. Attorney General and then withdrew from consideration, and one to replace Rep. Michael Waltz (R-FL), who has been nominated to be Trump’s National Security Advisor. Both special elections will take place on April 1. Additionally, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) was nominated to be U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, meaning her seat will become vacant when she is confirmed by the Senate. These vacancies will make a razor-thin majority even more precarious for GOP leadership to manage.

Since Gaetz resigned, his seat will remain empty until the special election in April. Waltz’s resignation will become effective January 20, and Stefanik’s will likely come once she is confirmed by the Senate. This means that the GOP could have as few as 217 votes from mid-January until early April.

The New Senate Majority

The biggest change on Capitol Hill is not just the Republican majority in the Senate—it’s the change of who is at the helm of the caucus. After 18 years as Republican Leader, Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) stepped down from his post at the end of the 118th Congress and passed the torch to Senator John Thune (R-SD), who won the caucus-wide election to succeed him. Thune now assumes the role of Majority Leader and the control of the Senate that comes with it. With Thune’s ascension, Senator John Barrasso (R-WY) was elected to the No. 2 position in leadership as Majority Whip.

The House majority: Unlike in the Senate, the leadership of the Republican Majority in the House remains the same. Representatives Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Tom Emmer (R-MN) were reelected to their posts with ease as Majority Leader and Whip, respectively, following the November elections. As of this writing, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is also expected to reclaim his post as Speaker of the House. He will likely have had to make some concessions to the right wing of the party to secure the necessary votes, but with Trump’s endorsement, he should be able to secure a full term as Speaker. (It’s worth noting that all three GOP leaders have participated in the NACS In Store Program in the past.)

What to Expect From the GOP Trifecta

With Republicans in full control of Washington, we can speculate on what that may mean for some of our industry’s priority issues over the next few years.

Tax policy: With many significant pieces of the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act expiring at the end of this year, tax reform will be a major focus in the halls of the Capitol. Full Republican control means legislators can use the budget reconciliation process to bypass the need for Democrat votes in the Senate to pass new tax reform legislation—and we expect them to do just that.

Republican majorities are likely to look fondly on many of the provisions that are most important to our industry, including bonus depreciation, the 199A business income deduction and preserving the 21% corporate tax rate. The biggest challenge is likely to be the focus among some Republicans on offsetting the cost of tax extensions to limit—to some extent at least—adding to the national debt in the process. This may end up requiring tradeoffs within the tax code or limiting the time frame these provisions are extended for again.

Swipe fee reform and payments policy: There has been growing momentum in Congress to pass legislation to give businesses and consumers relief from the enormous credit card swipe fees they bear. While the banks spent close to $100 million fighting the bill last Congress, the Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA) garnered support from members on both sides of the aisle, including Vice President JD Vance, who was a co-sponsor. At a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing in November, Republican Senators acknowledged the fees are too high and that Congress would need to act if the fees don’t come down. As this industry knows all too well, with monopolists like Visa and Mastercard, the fees never come down but instead rise year after year. The CCCA’s champions will continue to fight for a vote.

Another payments issue to watch is the expansion of digital currencies. The chairs of the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee have said it is a top priority to pass a crypto regulatory framework. The Senate will need 60 votes to pass that kind of measure, but a number of Democrats have signaled they would be supportive.

Food policy: Congress failed to pass a new Farm Bill in 2024, which means we will see another Farm Bill fight play out in the 119th Congress. With the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, which plays a big role in shaping the country’s nutrition policy, it’s anticipated that the Trump administration’s “Make America Healthy Again” initiative will impact the new Farm Bill legislation. It’s possible that language could be included that would restrict customers’ SNAP purchases to only healthy or “nutrient dense” foods. Regardless of the administration’s priorities, the bill will still likely require extensive bipartisan negotiations between House and Senate Agriculture Committee leadership in order to pass.

Energy policy: President Trump made energy policy one of the pillars of his election effort. He criticized Biden administration policies on shifting to electric vehicles and pushed for more oil drilling and refining in the United States. The expectation is that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will work to implement those changes—principally by undoing some of the policies put in place by the Biden administration. The process of changing regulations can be difficult, however, and the Trump EPA will have to make those changes in a way that will withstand the inevitable litigation challenges.

Tobacco and nicotine policy: The Biden administration pursued an aggressive anti-tobacco agenda with proposals to ban menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars, as well as its plans to limit the amount of nicotine in cigarettes. It is unlikely that the FDA under President Trump will pursue these actions. While he regulated flavored vapor products during his first term, he posted on Truth Social last fall, “I’ll save vaping again.” It is unclear what that will look like, but it could mean more decisions in the lengthy PMTA process, which would mean more clarity for retailers. With Republican control in Congress, there may be more opportunities to hold FDA accountable through legislation, such as requiring the agency to provide lists of which products can and cannot be marketed.

Labor policy: Congress will continue to be hamstrung by stark differences of opinion on labor policy between the parties. With most legislation still requiring 60 votes in the Senate to bypass the filibuster, it’s unlikely we will see much from Congress on the policy front in this space. The administration is a different story. Some business groups have expressed reservations about President Trump’s pick for the Secretary of Labor, former Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR) because of her generally pro-organized labor track record during her one term in the House. Despite her support for union-backed legislation, it is still likely we will see a much more business-friendly DOL than we have for the past four years. We will likely see new action on the overtime, independent contractor and joint employer rules for example, but even with DeRemer at the helm they are likely be much more reasonable proposals.