Mid-Term Moveout

At least 20 Democrats and six Republicans say they will retire from the House of Representatives.

Since at least 1976, an average of 23 U.S. House members choose to retire from all public office every two-year election cycle, according to the Cook Political Report. As of this writing, there have already been 26 such announcements by incumbents. This is in addition to 15 other incumbents who are vacating their House seats to seek another elected office. According to Ballotpedia.org, the rate of announcements is outpacing the last election cycle, though it currently trails the 2018 cycle when Democrats last took control of the House majority.

As is often seen in elections that are expected to be “wave” years for one party or the other, particularly when they are expected to lead to a change in the majority party—as most analysts believe the 2022 mid-terms will be—there has been a significantly higher number of House members in the majority party who have announced they will not seek re-election than members in the minority party. Recent polls asking likely voters if they would like a generic Republican or Democrat to be their representative show Republicans with a narrow lead early this election year. Using the 2020 election cycle as a reference, in late January 2020, Democrats enjoyed a roughly five-point advantage in that question. It was Republicans who would add 14 seats that November, however. Such a significant swing is just one data point indicating why many Democrats are choosing retirement.

Of the 41 House members who have thus far announced their retirements, 28 are Democrats, 20 of whom are simply retiring from public office rather than seeking another seat. That compares with 13 Republicans heading for the exits, with seven of those seeking other offices. The seniority level of many of these Democratic retirements is notable. The current chairs of four House committees have announced their retirements. John Yarmuth (D- KY) chairs the Budget Committee, Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-TX) chairs the Science Committee, and Peter DeFazio (D-OR) chairs the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. DeFazio, 6th in House seniority, and Bernice Johnson, 20th in seniority, join Bobby Rush (D-IL), 23rd in seniority, and Mike Doyle (D-PA), 29 examples of senior Democrat members who have decided to end their long, elected careers.

KEY FIGURES

41 House Members have announced retirement plans
6 Senators intend to retire, the largest number since 2014

The move by senior and powerful representatives to leave the House is not entirely unique to Democrats, as the top Republican on the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, Kevin Brady (R-TX), who is also 34th in House seniority, has decided to retire as well. On the GOP side of the aisle, however, he seems to be the outlier thus far. Of the Republicans who have announced their retirements, four— Mo Brooks (R-AL), Ted Budd (R-NC), Vicky Hartzler (R-MO) and Billy Long (R-MO)—are all seeking U.S. Senate seats. Of the six not seeking other office, Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) and John Katko (R-NY) are facing dual challenges of having their districts targeted for elimination in redistricting processes and facing long odds in their primaries due to supporting the impeachment of former President Donald Trump. In addition, Rep. Tom Reed (R-NY) announced his retirement in 2021 after facing sexual misconduct allegations. There are far fewer Republican members simply calling it a career than there are Democrats thus far.

SENATE DEPARTURES

The story in the U.S. Senate is nearly the opposite in terms of partisanship. While most prognosticators give the GOP a good chance of retaking the majority in that chamber, that likelihood is much less assured than in the House, partially because the Republicans must defend 20 seats to the Democrats’ 14. Thus far, six senators have announced their retirements, the largest number since 2014. Of those, five are Republicans.

The sole Senate Democrat to announce retirement is the Senate’s most senior member, Patrick Leahy (D-VT), who also chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee. On the GOP side, the 4th and 20th most senior members of the Senate will be moving on—Richard Shelby (R-AL) and Richard Burr (R-NC), respectively. Joining them in retirement will be senators Pat Toomey (R-PA), Rob Portman (R-OH) and Roy Blunt (R-MO). Toomey’s retirement, in particular, is seen as a conversion opportunity for Democrats.

INDUSTRY IMPACT

For the convenience industry, a number of the announced retirements raise concerns, while one in particular represents a significant opportunity for our industry to gain a key ally in the U.S. Senate. Sen. Leahy’s retirement in Vermont has opened the door for Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT), an important friend of our industry, to seek that Senate seat. Rep. Welch is currently favored to win that seat. The flip side to that is that we will lose a key House ally, and Welch is not the only friendly face our industry will be losing in that chamber. From payments and data security issues to menu labeling and fuels issues, Welch has worked closely with NACS and retailers in his district. In addition, he was one of the first members of Congress to participate in a NACS In Store event and was part of the 100th In Store celebratory event and video.

“Sen. Leahy’s retirement in Vermont has opened the door for Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT), an important friend of our industry, to seek that Senate seat. ”

At least two other business-friendly Democrats are departing at the end of this Congress, as well. Reps. G.K. Butterfield (D-NC) and Stephanie Murphy (D-FL) have, at times, been key moderating voices in the Democrat caucus. Reps. Kinzinger, Katko and Reed have played similar roles on the Republican side as has Trey Hollingsworth (R-IN), who is also leaving and not seeking other office and has been a friend to the industry.

On the Senate side, Sens. Burr and Blunt have been friends of our industry. Burr has long been a champion on tobacco issues, ensuring that the convenience and fuel retailing industry continues to be allowed to sell legal tobacco and nicotine products, and Blunt was our champion on efforts to amend the challenging menu-labeling rules that came out of the Affordable Care Act.

The loss of key allies and friends underscores the importance of political engagement and continuing to build strong grassroots connections not just with current members of Congress but also state and local office holders. Many of the 41 currently open seats will be filled by state legislators or local elected officials. Convenience retailers and the industry as a whole benefit greatly if those new members are already familiar with you and your business when they come to Washington.

NACS will seek to meet with all the new members and introduce them to the industry once they take office. If retailers have already built strong relationships with these members, either while they served in local office or while they were candidates, it gives the convenience and fuel retailing industry a head start on that process here in Washington, D.C.

Engagement with these officeholders isn’t just about financial support for their campaigns. It can also be about ensuring that they know convenience retailers can be a resource to them when issues which could impact the industry come before their offices. As always, NACS encourages you to reach out to your elected officials, set up a meeting to introduce yourself and your business, invite them to your stores and make yourself a friendly face and a resource for them. You will likely see a significant return on your investment of time and effort even if those officials never seek federal office.