According to the Fuels Institute, even if plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV) were to continue recording strong, year-over-year sales, it would take many years before they would significantly impact the overall light-duty vehicle fleet. The figure below presents three scenarios (low, mid and high) in which PHEV and BEV sales would increase by 10%, 15% or 20%, respectively, every year from 2020 through 2040. (No assumptions were made in creating this chart other than sales would increase by a consistent percentage every year.)

In these scenarios, electric vehicle sales could capture between 16.6% and 94.5% of light-duty vehicle sales. However, given fleet turnover rates, the number of plug-in electrified vehicles on the road would represent between 7.4% and 26.6% of the fleet. The light-duty vehicle market is large and currently dominated by gasoline-powered internal combustion engines, and it will take many years of sales expansion to change the dynamics of the market.

To read the full report, “State of Transportation Energy and Vehicle Electrification,” from the Fuels Institute, visit www.fuelsinstitute.org.

Source: The Fuels Institute