As we move toward a conclusion to this rough and tumble U.S. presidential contest, we see polling closing between the two national candidates after former Vice President Joe Biden had opened consistent leads. Though Biden will likely prevail in the national popular vote, the presidency is won in the states, and we have seen a different winner in the national popular vote and within the Electoral College twice during this still young century.
The presidential contest continues to focus on about 10 states. To win re-election, President Trump must carry the swing states of Florida and North Carolina and hold three more critical domains that have moved closer to the Democrats since his 2016 victory: Arizona, Georgia and Texas.
If he holds those five, then the Great Lakes region becomes very manageable as he will only need one of the area’s swing states, meaning the group of states generally inclusive of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, but now Minnesota appears to also be entering the competitive picture. This also assumes that Trump carries the 2nd Congressional Districts in both Maine and Nebraska, from the two states that split their electoral votes, and he sees no slippage in Iowa and Ohio. Conversely, this model also projects that Biden wins Nevada and New Hampshire, both of which have significant electoral swing trends.
Biden could win the Electoral College most likely by upending Trump in one of the latter man’s aforementioned core states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina or Texas. If he fails to break through, then the Democratic nominee will be forced to take all of the swing Great Lakes states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and now Minnesota.
In looking at the current map, it is important to remember the polling structure from four years ago. For example, in Wisconsin, 33 polls were conducted during the 2016 presidential election cycle, and Trump led in only one, yet he won the state. In Pennsylvania, 62 polls were publicly released. Trump led in three, yet he won the state. Turning to Michigan, 45 surveys were commissioned. Trump led in two, but he won the state.
Similar patterns are developing for the 2020 race. Will the end result be the same this year? It is still too early to tell. We do know, however, that more pollsters have entered the public domain employing different survey methodologies. Seeing wide ranges in states, even when polls are conducted during the same timeframe, has become commonplace. Therefore, more uncertainty clouds this election than others during the modern political era.
Senate Races
The significant Senate primaries are now concluded, and they went out with a bang. Knowing that one Massachusetts political dynasty would end in the battle between Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Newton) in this year’s statewide Democratic primary, the veteran politico proved victorious.
Ed Markey was first elected to the Massachusetts state House of Representatives in 1972 and has held elective office in the state ever since, including serving for 36 years in the U.S. House. He won the Senate seat in 2013 when then-Sen. John Kerry resigned to become Secretary of State in the Obama Administration.
Sen. Markey’s 55-45% win over Rep. Kennedy in the September 1 primary may have put an end to the Kennedy family dynasty. It is the first time a Kennedy family member has ever lost a race in the state, meaning their overall record in Democratic primaries is now 26-1, beginning with John F. Kennedy’s first election to the House in 1946.
Turning to the national picture, the Senate races also feature a firewall of states. The campaigns continue to evolve as we move through the late primaries, and it is becoming clear that the Republicans are establishing a political safety net in order to protect their 53-47 chamber majority.
Of the 35 Senate elections on the 2020 elections card, it appears that 13 are highly competitive—11 of which are already under Republican control. The remaining 22 are either safe or definitively leaning to one party or the other. All totaled, Republicans must protect 23 of the 35 Senate seats on the ballot.
The Republican political firewall consists of four states, and if the GOP candidates win in each place, building a majority coalition becomes difficult, but not impossible, for the Democrats to obtain.
The most critical Senate race may be in Alabama. There, Democratic Sen. Doug Jones will defend the seat he won in a 2017 special election against retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville, who defeated former U.S. Senator Jeff Sessions in the Republican runoff election. Even though Democrats hold this seat, Alabama becomes the cornerstone of the Senate Republican firewall. It is, therefore, a must-win campaign for the GOP.
If Tuberville is elected, and he is favored with large polling leads and President Trump on the ballot in what will be a top-three state for him, the GOP majority number advances to 54. This means Democrats would have to win a preponderance of the competitive seats still remaining on the board.
More uncertainty clouds this election than others during the modern political era.
The other three firewall states are not ones you typically hear the most about when reading stories covering the Senate races. In any event, however, if the Republicans convert Alabama, and small state Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Joni Ernst (R-IA) and Steve Daines (R-MT) all win, the chances of Republicans maintaining their majority, albeit likely in a smaller dimension, dramatically improve. Of these, Maine provides the Democrats with their best conversion opportunity.
If the Republicans hold their firewall, then Michigan becomes the Dems’ No. 1 priority. Sen. Gary Peters (D) holding off a strong challenge from Republican John James is mandatory and, if successful, means the Democrats have secured their 46th seat. Their top conversion opportunities lie in Arizona, where retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) has opened a significant lead, according to most polls, over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R). Because the Colorado electorate has moved definitively left since Sen. Cory Gardner (R) was elected in 2014, the Centennial State is another top Democratic conversion target.
If they win Arizona and Colorado, the Democratic Senate total rises to 48, but they are still two short of majority control if Joe Biden wins the presidency and three away if Mr. Trump is re-elected.
By the time Election Day appears on the near horizon, it is probable that three states will become likely GOP wins. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Texas Sen. John Cornyn should clinch victory, while Kansas Rep. Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend) winning his state’s August 4 Republican primary means the Sunflower State will also probably remain within the GOP camp.
If all of this comes to fruition, the Democrats are then down to North Carolina and the two Georgia seats, one of which is a special election, and possibly Sen. Lindsey Graham defending his seat against an unexpectedly strong challenge in South Carolina. In this firewall scenario, the Democrats would be forced to win two of the final four, if not three.
North Carolina’s electorate has defeated more incumbent U.S. Senators than any other state in the modern political era; therefore, the Tar Heel State is always competitive. North Carolinians also tend to vote for a ticket, so chances are if President Trump carries the state, first-term incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis will likely follow him across the political finish line. If Biden wins North Carolina, it’s a good bet that he scores a national election victory and pulls in Senate Democratic nominee Cal Cunningham.
The two Georgia seats are also developing into competitive races, but Republicans have at least a slight edge in both. Still, neither Senator David Perdue (R) nor appointed Senator Kelly Loeffler (R) or her GOP opponent, U.S. Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville), can be considered more than slight favorites in a state that is undeniably moving to the political center.
This overall description underscores the importance of the four-seat Republican firewall. If Democrats hold Alabama or break through in either Maine, Iowa or Montana, odds are strong they will win Senate control. If not, Republican prospects of returning to lead the Senate in the next Congress increase significantly.
House Races
Today, the U.S. House majority stands at 232 Democrats, 198 Republicans, one Libertarian and four vacancies, including three from the Republican column. Adjusting the totals to account for the vacancies, which should remain with their current parties in subsequent elections, would push the overall party division to 233 Democrats and 201 Republicans.
If the GOP is successful in re-claiming Michigan’s 3rd District, the seat from which Libertarian and former Republican Justin Amash (L-Cascade Township/Grand Rapids) is retiring, and the nomination of businessman and Iraq War veteran Peter Meijer enhances their general election prospects, the net conversion number Republicans need to regain the House majority becomes 16.
Increases to that conversion number occur when adding two seats for the Democrats. The North Carolina state Supreme Court adopted an end-of-the-decade redistricting plan that virtually guarantees Democrats will gain at least two seats in the coming election. Sure of such an outcome, the pair of Republican incumbents from the two drastically altered districts aren’t even seeking re-election.
Thirty Democratic House members hold seats in states that President Trump carried in 2016, most of which he will win again this year. These comprise the bulk of the 2020 Republican targets.
Democrats, however, have several conversion opportunities of their own. Strong challengers are attempting to convert multiple Republican seats in Texas (four) and Pennsylvania (two), along with single targets in California, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska and Virginia, with secondary opportunities in Alaska, Montana and other places.
Though Democrats are favored to again prevail in the House, we will witness heavy congressional competition in as many as 32 states, featuring at least 59 competitive elections. Seeing that eight sitting representatives were already defeated in their nomination elections, uncertainty increases. Though most of the electorates who defeated members in the primary will re-elect a new candidate of the same party, the large number of incumbent defeats could be a precursor to above average incumbent political mortality coming in the fall election.