Note: To encourage open dialogue of ideas, the Transportation Energy Institute follows the Chatham House Rule, which allows meeting participants to use information from a discussion, but prohibits revealing the identity or affiliation of the speaker.
“Transportation is not a side story to the economy. It is the economy,” stressed a speaker at the Transportation Energy Institute’s (TEI) annual conference, which took place in April 2026 in Fort Worth, Texas. “It affects prices, safety, convenience and consumer confidence.”
Everything that consumers buy depends upon transportation—whether by air, sea, rail or truck—and the transportation system is currently facing massive changes, both from technology advancements and from higher fuel prices.
And buckle up, because the overall sentiment from speakers was, “We’re in for a rough ride.”
The Impact of Supply Issues
Echoing comments made a week earlier at the NACS State of the Industry Summit, speakers said that the conflict with Iran will fundamentally disrupt markets, and we are already seeing the impact, particularly related to diesel and jet fuel.
Overall, 40-50% of distillate (diesel fuel and home heating oil) moves through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, it’s more difficult to reduce diesel demand compared to gasoline demand. While drivers may find ways to cut back on driving, diesel powers the trucking, farming and construction industries, and there are currently no alternatives to reduce demand.
Jet fuel has been in tight supply, particularly in Europe, since late April. During the conference, Lufthansa announced that it was cancelling 20,000 flights to save money as jet fuel prices skyrocketed.
“Energy security is a very real, tangible issue that we don’t yet realize in the United States,” noted one speaker. But it likely will be an issue this summer, particularly in California, if the conflict with Iran is not resolved and oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz does not return to normal.
There are some actions that the U.S. government can take to mitigate supply issues. For one, a continuation of E15 waivers that allow E15 to be sold in the summer months. E15 is a blend that is up to 15% ethanol, compared to 10% for conventional gas, which reduces the percentage of petroleum-based product in gas. In May, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issues temporary waivers that allow for E15 to be sold in the summer months, and the U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation to allow the permanent year-round sale of E15, but the bill had not passed through the Senate by early June. NACS has continually advocated for the year-round sale of E15 fuel.
Another option is Reformulated Gasoline regulatory waivers. In the summer months, many populated areas require summer-blend fuel that has a lower Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP), which reduces emissions that can contribute to smog. Waivers allowing higher RVP fuels, which typically have a pressure between seven and nine pounds per square inch (psi) in the summer months, (depending upon regional requirements) help increase supply. Every one psi increase adds 2% in volume.
But for most of the country, which uses conventional fuels, waivers don’t have an impact because they are already using higher RVP fuels.
Addressing Prices
Right now, higher fuel prices disproportionally affect those who can least afford it: More than 71 million Americans struggled to pay their energy bills last year.
While governments will need to address considerable issues related to supply, depending upon the region, some are addressing prices, at least temporarily. The U.S. has kicked around the concept of a “gas tax holiday” that would temporarily suspend the 18.4-cent-per-gallon federal tax on gasoline and the 24.4-cent-per-gallon tax on diesel.
In April, Canada announced a temporary suspension of its national gas tax through September 7, 2026. The states Georgia, Indiana and Utah suspended theirs for varying lengths. However, none of these moves address supply.
Looking Long Term
The world energy market will look considerably different in the coming decades. The global population is expected to increase, led by growth in developing countries. These developing countries are expected to use 25% more energy by 2050, which will require more supply and related infrastructure. The Asian-Pacific region will see the most growth in transportation energy usage by 2050.
The increased demand for energy will create a bifurcated market, since developed countries have more stability, while the rest of the world could face outages and brownouts. Of the approximately 8.3 million people in the world, the “lucky 1 billion” who live in much more developed markets will have more quality access to energy.
“Developed countries will be dealing with CO2, poorer ones have different problems,” noted a speaker.
Change is Coming
Vehicle miles traveled haven’t changed much over the past few years, but how these miles are traveled has significantly changed. Today, an estimated 16% of vehicle miles traveled are related to e-commerce.
As autonomous vehicles grow in popularity, tech companies will need to grow their supply of vehicles. Given that today’s new cars are basically computers with wheels, could a partnership be in the works with an auto manufacturer?
“You heard it here first: Within 10 years, big tech will buy at least one of the big three U.S. automakers,” noted a speaker.
Alphabet, the parent company of Google, might be a suiter, particularly as it looks to expand its Waymo fleet.
Also, EVs could also see strong growth. China dominates the EV market, with BYD now selling more EVs worldwide than Tesla. And Chinese EV sales are expected to surge, based on their lower price points through government subsidies and marketing efforts.
How Long Will Repercussions Last?
The oil shocks of the 1970s changed behavior and led to greater fuel efficiency and the growth of biofuels. Will the same hold true today?
“If it’s prolonged, it will affect policy,” noted one speaker. “When prices go up, politics get in the way,” noted another.
“When you’re in the moment—like right now—it can feel chaotic. This will be one of the big moments when we look back to see if policies that were created were sound and beneficial for the long term,” noted another speaker.
While we are facing very large energy challenges, there is room for hope, and that is one of the key elements of what the Transportation Energy Institute brings. Founded by NACS in 2013, the Transportation Energy Institute is a non-profit that evaluates market issues related to vehicles and the energy that powers them.
“Our biggest asset is we all have different opinions,” said one speaker, “yet we’re willing to work together to solve these big problems.”
